  Commander of International Security Assistance Force Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal.
BY ERNEST COREA
IDN-InDepthNews Service
WASHINGTON DC (IDN) - The contrived label “Af-Pak” should be banned, and anybody who uses it should be fined, says U.S. Congressman Adam Smith who chairs the House of Representatives Armed Services Subcommittee on Terrorism, Unconventional Threats, and Capabilities. His comment was made to a group of academics, diplomats, journalists and others whom he addressed recently on the topic ‘Committing to a Strategy for Success in Uncertain Times’.
Smith’s somewhat startling admonition drew much-needed attention to the non-military realities – cultural, political, social – that need to be respected as the U.S. and NATO seek strategic re-orientation in Afghanistan.
Several weeks of “agonizing reappraisal” here have not yet resulted in a consensus view, as President Barack Obama receives a range of suggestions from his senior aides, and probes the consequences of proposed actions. Among the options that have received public attention are:
The 'Chaosistan' approach, a name and strategy attributed to intelligence experts, which will have the U.S. withdraw its forces, whatever state of chaos might ensue, and strike Al Qaeda bases with air power if they appear to be developing strength.
Status Quo plus, under which troop strengths will remain at present levels, Drones will be used to kill specific Al Qaeda targets, as they have done successfully up to now, and civilian development activity will increase.
Wholesale reorganization of the U.S./NATO enterprise as suggested by General Stanley A. McChrystal, the American commander of ISAF (the International Security Assistance Force).
The first two of these have some bearing on the goal set by Obama in March this year, which was to “disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda and its safe havens”. The third takes a much broader approach, and requires attention to a variety of local concerns.
POORLY UNDERSTOOD
A delegation of Pakistani ex-officials, civilian and military, who are visiting here “to inform American policymakers on the Pakistani perspective on a range of issues prominent in the U.S.-Pakistan relationship” echoed Smith’s view on the use of “Af-Pak”. They said that “the Af-Pak terminology is disliked and has received strong criticism across Pakistan”.
So would any two countries react that found themselves yoked together by a hyphen without any prior consultation. Canadians, certainly, would suffer fits of outrage if they woke up one morning and discovered that they had turned into a segment of Am-Can.
Gen. McChrystal has himself pointed out the need for ISAF to understand non-military realities. In an on-the-spot assessment that was “scooped” by the ‘Washington Post’ before the commander-in-chief received it, he wrote: “Afghan social, political, economic, and cultural affairs are complex and poorly understood.
“ISAF does not sufficiently appreciate the dynamics in local communities, nor how the insurgency, corruption, incompetent officials, power-brokers and criminality all combine to affect the Afghan population.” McCrystal’s antidote is that ISAF operations should be broadly reoriented.
In the revamped military operation, ISAF forces will devote their energies to protecting the Afghan population – not themselves – and to reintegrating insurgents within society. The reorientation will ensure that ISAF forces are “seen as guests of the Afghan people and their government, not an occupying army”. He wants key personnel in ISAF to receive language training.
Other aspects of reorientation involve rapid training and expansion of the Afghan army and police as well as reform of the penal system which is now considered a Taliban franchise.
NATO Defence Ministers meeting in Bratislava, Slovakia are said to have reacted “positively” to the broad outlines of Gen. McChrystal’s proposed strategic reorientation but did not commit themselves to additional troops or funds, although they realized that both would be needed.
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen was quoted by the ‘New York Times’ as saying: “What we need is a much broader strategy, which stabilizes the whole of Afghan society, and this is the essence in the recommendations presented by Gen. McChrystal. This won’t happen just because of a good plan. It will also need resources – people and money.”
A figure of 40,000 troops within the next 12 months is widely noted as Gen. McChrystal’s minimum need, with 85,000 as a likely maximum. Sceptics react to the numbers by pointing to the experience in Vietnam where small beginnings led to an ever-expanding American military presence.
PUBLIC OPINION
The request for additional troop strength and a complex reorganization of ISAF operations comes at a time when American public opinion is closely divided in its attitude to the war in Afghanistan. A recent ‘Washington Post’ poll showed 49 percent opposing military escalation in Afghanistan and 47 percent supporting it.
This is a great turnaround from eight years ago when the need for a punitive response to the murderous events of September 11 was widely accepted and, among some sections of opinion, demanded. That was when President George W. Bush said he “wanted Osama bin Laden, dead or alive”.
The state of current public opinion at home combined with the nature of the challenges in Afghanistan and the complexities of the response proposed by Obama’s chosen general explain why high-level consultations continue at the White House where the president does not want a rushed decision now, with second thoughts and recrimination later.
Dick Cheney, vice president of a government that plunged the country into two continuing wars, has emerged from early hibernation to condemn the time being taken by the Obama Administration to make up its mind on a major military push and, presumably, to hell with everything else. He has accused President Obama of “dithering”.
In a withering response, Lawrence O’Donnell, who has worked in Congress before and now is a television commentator said: “The dithering thing is great because Cheney, of course, did not dither, did not dither for a minute, when the time came to make a wild guess, an outright crazy wild guess, about are there weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
“And Cheney sat there in the White House and said, you know what, I've got everything I need to make my wild guess. On the basis of my wild guess I'm going to tell the country it's an actual fact, and then I'm gonna help send American soldiers there to die over a lie. No dithering when it came time to do that.”
The U.S. experience in Iraq must weight heavily on Obama as he weighs his options. He has been provided something of a breathing space by President Hamid Karzai’s agreement to a run-off election against runner-up former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah.
The runoff election will give the electoral process a measure of credibility, because the earlier election was manifestly fraudulent. Electoral fraud was initially brought into the open by Ambassador Peter Galbraith, the UN’s deputy representative in Kabul. Galbraith, an American with a reputation as an outstanding and outspoken public servant, was “recalled” by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.
Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission and Independent Election Commission subsequently confirmed the existence of electoral fraud. The votes which had to be rejected because they were fraudulently cast for Karzai pushed his tally below 50 percent of votes polled, thus necessitating a run-off election, as mandated by the constitution.
Karzai was known to oppose a run-off, and persistent refusal by him to abide by the constitution would have brought the electoral process, the Karzai Government, and its partners into disrepute.
DISASTER EVADED
This impending political disaster was forestalled by Senator John Kerry, chair of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who happened to be in the region and was able to persuade Karzai after several hours of face-to-face negotiation in Kabul to accept the required run-off election.
Hardly any election in the world is completely free of taint, so there will be allegations of fraud even after the new election next month. Moreover, the 54:20 voting spread in the initial count at the first election suggests that it may be difficult for Abdullah to catch up at the second, and Karzai will re-emerge as president, a result that will not please his critics and opponents.
There is a slim possibility, though, that Karzai and Abdullah could “kiss and make up” to set up a coalition.
Meanwhile, Obama who inherited a war that Bush launched and then neglected as he went for Iraq finds time catching up with him as the need for binding decisions approaches. Hovering over him and his advisers is the knowledge that throughout history Afghanistan has not been hospitable to uninvited visitors. (IDN-InDepthNews/24.10.09)
Copyright © 2009 IDN-InDepthNews Service
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The writer has served as Sri Lanka’s ambassador to Canada, Cuba, Mexico, and the USA. He was Chairman of the Commonwealths Select Committee on the media and development, Editor of the Ceylon ‘Daily News’ and the Ceylon ‘Observer’, and was for a time Features Editor and Foreign Affairs columnist of the Singapore ‘Straits Times’. He is on the IDN editorial board.
Ernest Corea’s previous IDN articles:
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